The federal government is mandating that you burn food in your car, and almost nobody is talking about how destructive it actually is.
Under the banner of "American energy dominance," the Trump administration recently finalized the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume obligations for 2026 and 2027. Billed as a historic victory for the heartland, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is forcing fuel refiners to blend record-breaking amounts of biofuels into the nation’s gasoline and diesel supply. For another view, read: this related article.
The administration claims this "Set 2" rule will pump $31 billion into the rural economy, support family farms, and lower prices at the pump.
But if you look past the standard political theater, the math tells a completely different story. The massive push for biofuels—particularly biomass-based diesel—is a disaster for both your wallet and the planet. Far from being a green alternative, the current policy acts as a global deforestation machine while driving up domestic fuel and food costs. Related analysis on the subject has been provided by NBC News.
It is a policy built on a foundational lie: that because plants absorb carbon while they grow, burning them for fuel must be carbon-neutral. It isn't. And the administration's aggressive new targets are about to show us exactly why.
The 60 Percent Shock to Global Agriculture
The newest iteration of the Renewable Fuel Standard keeps the traditional corn ethanol mandate steady at 15 billion gallons. But the real kicker is what it does to biomass-based diesel. The new rules demand a massive 60 percent increase in biomass-based diesel compared to 2025 levels, pushing the target to roughly 9 billion gallons.
This isn't a minor policy tweak. It's a massive, violent shock to the global agricultural market.
To make that much biodiesel and renewable diesel, you need vegetable oil—and lots of it. The United States simply does not grow enough soybeans or canola to meet this demand. When domestic soy oil is diverted to fuel tanks, food processors still need oil for cooking, baking, and manufacturing.
So where does that oil come from? It gets imported.
Every time we burn a gallon of domestic soy-based diesel, we pull a gallon of vegetable oil out of the global food supply. To plug that gap, multinational corporations turn to the cheapest, most abundant source of vegetable oil on Earth: palm oil, mostly grown in Indonesia and Malaysia, or soy grown in South America.
The result is a direct chain reaction. More U.S. biofuel mandates mean more tropical rainforests in Southeast Asia and South America are bulldozed and burned to plant oil palms and soy fields. Researchers have found that this indirect land-use change means biodiesel expansion can cause three to four times more carbon emissions over a 30-year period than the fossil fuels they replace.
We are destroying carbon-rich tropical peatlands and ancient rainforests to satisfy a domestic political mandate designed to look "green" on paper.
Pushing Farmers Into a Supply Chain Trap
Proponents of the policy argue that it supports American farmers. On the surface, it does. Farm lobbies and agricultural trade groups have celebrated the announcement because it guarantees a highly subsidized, captive market for their crops.
But this creates a dangerous structural dependency. American agriculture is being warped around fuel production rather than food production.
The industry is rapidly shifting its infrastructure to maximize the crush of oilseeds. In states like North Dakota and Iowa, massive new crushing plants are coming online specifically to feed the energy market. Farmers are encouraged to use specific regenerative practices under the USDA’s new Regenerative Feedstock Rule to capture premium tax credits, like the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit.
But what happens when the political winds shift?
If future administrations scale back these mandates, or if the scientific consensus on the environmental damage of biofuels finally breaks through to policy makers, the floor drops out from under these rural economies. By tying the financial health of the American heartland to an artificial, government-mandated market, we are setting up farmers for a devastating crash.
The False Promise of Lower Prices
The administration repeatedly promises that biofuels provide relief at the pump. But even the EPA's own economic analysis contradicts this.
According to the agency’s internal estimates, the massive spike in biofuel mandates will actually drive diesel prices higher—by an estimated 30 cents per gallon this year, and up to 36 cents per gallon in 2027. The overall policy is projected to cost the U.S. economy roughly $20 billion over the next two years.
These costs don't vanish into thin air. They are paid by consumers at the pump and reflected in the price of every single consumer good delivered by a diesel truck.
Furthermore, diverting millions of acres of fertile cropland to fuel production reduces the supply of land available for growing food. This artificial scarcity drives up global food prices, disproportionately hurting the poorest people on the planet.
The Real Motivation Behind the Mandates
So why does the Trump administration champion a policy that drives up fuel costs, raises food prices, and accelerates global deforestation?
Because it serves two critical political goals.
First, it is an incredibly effective tool for courting rural voters. Farming states like Iowa and Illinois are vital political battlegrounds, and agricultural lobbies carry immense weight. Handing those lobbies a multi-billion-dollar guaranteed market is an easy way to secure political loyalty.
Second, biofuels are a weapon in the administration’s war against electric vehicles (EVs).
The Trump EPA has aggressively moved to dismantle Biden-era EV initiatives. Among other things, they stripped "renewable electricity" provisions from the RFS framework to ensure that electricity used to power EVs can't generate lucrative RFS compliance credits. By positioning liquid biofuels as the only "renewable" path forward, the administration seeks to protect the legacy internal combustion engine market while throwing a massive financial bone to the agricultural sector.
It is a policy driven by political convenience, not scientific reality or economic sanity.
What You Can Do About It
If you want to push back against this destructive cycle, you have to target the policies that prop it up.
- Contact your representatives: Let them know you oppose the expansion of RFS mandates that drive up fuel and food prices.
- Support reform organizations: Groups like the World Resources Institute and other environmental watchdogs are actively fighting these mandates in court and in Congress. Getting involved with their campaigns helps amplify the pushback against the powerful oil and agricultural lobbies.
- Stay informed on local agricultural policies: If you live in a rural state, look closely at how local land-use laws are adapting to the biofuel boom, and advocate for policies that protect local conservation reserves from being converted into intensive, monoculture energy crops.
