Westminster is broken, but Manchester is not the answer.
With Andy Burnham poised to enter 10 Downing Street on July 20, his brand of "Manchesterism" is being billed as the ultimate cure for a highly centralized UK. But as the prime-minister-in-waiting outlines plans to shift power away from London, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has delivered a sharp reality check.
For Wales, a "Number 10 North" based in Manchester means very little.
The friction between Cardiff and Westminster is not just a minor disagreement over boundaries. It is a fundamental clash of political philosophies. Burnham is pitching a model of municipal, mayor-centric devolution designed for the regions of England. Ap Iorwerth, leading a newly elected Plaid Cymru government in Cardiff, is demanding national parity, fair funding, and substantial tax-raising powers.
If the next prime minister treats Wales like an English region, the fragile relationship between Westminster and the devolved nations will fracture before his administration even gets started.
The limits of Manchesterism
Burnham's vision is built on his success as the mayor of Greater Manchester. He brought buses back under public control, integrated local transport, and fought London for better funding. Now, he wants to replicate this municipal model nationwide by setting up "No 10 North" to orchestrate devolution from Manchester rather than Whitehall.
The problem? Wales is a nation, not an English region.
During his major campaign speech, Burnham claimed that people in Bangor and Dundee feel just as distant from the Senedd and Holyrood as they do from Westminster. He argued that power needs to go "deeper down" to local councils and community levels, bypassing the devolved parliaments.
That was a massive misstep. Ap Iorwerth immediately shot back, calling Burnham’s localized vision "parochial". To Welsh leaders, bypassing the Senedd to work directly with local authorities looks less like devolution and more like an attempt to undermine the Welsh parliament's authority.
Wales does not need Manchester-style municipal management. It needs the economic levers of a self-governing nation.
The fight for real tax and spending powers
If Burnham wants a genuine reset with Wales, he has to move past warm words about local decision-making and address the structural financial imbalances of the UK. Wales is currently locked into the outdated Barnett Formula, a funding mechanism that does not allocate cash based on actual social and economic needs.
Before launching his leadership bid, Burnham openly criticized the Barnett Formula, arguing it was unfair to Wales. He even co-authored a book advocating for its replacement with a needs-based system. Yet, as Downing Street comes within his grasp, he has quietly backed away from that pledge, signaling he has no immediate plans to alter how the devolved nations are funded.
Cardiff views this as a massive betrayal.
Without the ability to raise its own revenue or secure a fairer share of UK resources, Wales remains financially handcuffed. Plaid Cymru’s mandate is clear. The party wants Wales to have the same tax-borrowing powers and legislative autonomy as Scotland. This includes control over:
- The Crown Estate: Giving Wales custody of its own natural resources and seabed to fund green energy transition.
- Rail Infrastructure: Ending the historic underfunding of Welsh transport and taking full control of the rail network.
- Justice and Policing: Devolving the legal system to tailor public safety and rehabilitation to local communities.
- Taxation and Borrowing: Gaining robust fiscal levers to directly stimulate Welsh businesses.
Treating Wales’ national parliament as equivalent to an English combined authority is a recipe for political gridlock.
Two competing views of devolution
A quiet civil war is playing out within the Labour Party over how to handle Scotland and Wales.
On one side, a faction of Welsh and Scottish Labour MPs is urging Burnham to sidestep the Senedd and Holyrood. They want Westminster to deal directly with local councils, hoping to weaken nationalist governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff.
On the other side, figures like former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford have campaigned for Burnham, hoping he will use his devolutionist credentials to complete the unfinished business of the Union. This means transferring justice, the Crown Estate, and rail infrastructure to Cardiff.
If Burnham sides with the anti-devolution MPs, he will alienate the Welsh public. The Senedd is not a administrative obstacle; it is the democratic voice of Wales. Trying to starve it of new powers while handing cash directly to local projects will only fuel nationalist demands for independence.
What happens next
Burnham cannot afford to ignore Wales. The political landscape has shifted. The era of Welsh Labour dominance has fractured, with Plaid Cymru leading the government and Reform UK emerging as a powerful opposition force in the Senedd.
If the incoming prime minister wants to save the Union, he must treat Wales with the respect due to a historic nation, not an administrative region of "the North."
The first test of this relationship will come in the upcoming autumn budget. Ap Iorwerth has made it clear that Wales will continue to press for fiscal parity with Scotland. Burnham’s team may want to keep the focus on English mayors, but the constitutional reality of the UK will quickly force its way to the top of his Downing Street inbox. He must decide whether to build a genuine partnership with Cardiff or continue the centralized Westminster approach he spent his mayoral career fighting against.
